CII’s 108th edition of quarterly Business Outlook Survey is based on nearly 200 responses from large, medium, small and micro firms, covering all regions of the country.
The key findings of the survey include:
The CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years, slipping to 52.5 in Jul-Sep 2019 quarter, much below the previous quarter’s level of 59.6.
About 36 percent of the respondents foresee 6.0%-6.5% growth in GDP in 2019-20, closely followed by 25 percent of them who feel that GDP growth may be a tad higher, in the 6.5%-7.0% range.
On the inflation front, a major proportion of the respondents (35 percent) foresee an increase in inflation rates in 2019-20, above their previous year levels.
After two consecutive policy rates cuts by the RBI, in April and June 2019, majority of the respondents (65 percent) continue to look forward to a further reduction in policy rates in the remaining three quarters of the financial year 2019-20.
Majority of the respondents (53 percent) feel that the government will not meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP in 2019-20.
The announcements made by the central government in the Union Budget 2019-20 fell short of expectations, with about half of the respondents (49 percent) indicating this in the survey.